Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1946/12306
Maritime transport in the Gulf of Bothnia 2010-2030 : future scenarios for maritime spatial planning purposes
The study aims to describe the main factors contributing to the development of maritime transport and to form future scenarios for shipping traffic in the Gulf of Bothnia by 2030. The goal is to identify future developments that should be taken into account when preparing a Maritime Spatial Plan for the Bothnian Sea area.
The methods include applying existing large scale quantitative scenarios for the volume of maritime traffic specifically in the Gulf of Bothnia context and Real-time Delphi round to find out the probability and desirability of the main factors having an impact on marine traffic. The factors contributing to the future of maritime traffic in Gulf of Bothnia are assessed and debated by an expert group. The study concludes with implications and recommendations for planning. Moreover, due to the spatial nature of the project, one of the most important outcomes of the study is the results shown on maps.
Area specific future scenarios have not been made concerning maritime transport in the Gulf of Bothnia. The future scenarios contribute to the area based, future oriented, participatory and adaptive nature of Marine Spatial Planning.
Maritime Spatial Planning is a fairly new approach to sustainable marine management. It is currently tested on trans-national scale in the Bothnian Sea area as a pilot project. Futures research and Delphi method have been used to aid logistics and traffic planning on land. This study explores how futures research methodology can be applied to planning on marine areas.