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Titill
en

Towards a Better Understanding of Climate Change Negotiations: A Mixed-Method Approach

Útgáfa
Október 2012
Útdráttur
en

This thesis utilizes a novel mixed-methodological approach to further understanding of the current state of international climate change negotiations. The methodological approach builds upon recent efforts within environmental economics literature – specifically game theoretic analyses – to better account for political realities. By utilizing content and discourse analyses in an innovative fashion, this thesis demonstrates the usefulness of conducting qualitative and quantitative analyses simultaneously to capture the “true” game being played and best represent reality. The structure of this thesis is as follows. Chapter 2 presents a literature review of both game theoretic analyses and discourse analyses as they relate to climate change negotiations. Chapter 3 presents the data under analysis: a summary of the Durban negotiations, key issues, turning points, and the decisions reached. Chapter 4 describes the methodological approach. Chapter 5 includes the results and discussion. First, the results of the content and discourse analyses are presented: the list of players and list of issues under analysis. Next, game theory is applied in order to represent player strategies as strategy continuums and analyze their ‘success’ vis-à-vis the Durban outcomes. The next section in Chapter 5 presents and analyzes players’ reactions to the Durban outcomes. Chapter 6 generates predictions regarding how international climate change negotiations will progress in the future and recommendations regarding how more progressive outcomes may be reached. The main result of this thesis was that players largely achieved the outcomes they desired but the majority of players expressed dissatisfaction with the Durban outcome despite the high degree of ‘success’, which I have explained by uncovering geopolitical shifts and vital political concerns which underlie players’ strategies.

Birting
17.9.2012


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