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  • Titill er á ensku Natural Resources and Development: The Oil Industry's Effects on Nigeria's Level of Macroeconomic Stability
  • Náttúruauðlindir og þróun: Áhrif olíugeirans á þjóðhagslegan stöðugleika í Nígeríu
  • Bakkalár
  • Útdráttur er á ensku

    Instability in the revenues of natural resources that play a large role in a country’s economy is bound to have various effects. Oil plays a large role in Nigeria’s economy with its share in total exports having been over 90 percent in the past decades and its share in federally collected revenue being close to 80 percent.
    The aim of this thesis is to explain how the oil industry, with its volatile commodity prices, affects macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The primary focus is on oil price changes along with three specific macroeconomic variables; export value as a ratio of GDP, inflation and GDP growth.
    The analysis of the aforementioned variables is primarily based on economic literature on the subject. A vector error correction model is also set up for the three variables and oil price with graphs of the corresponding impulse responses to shocks in oil prices.
    The role of macroeconomic and institutional policies in either exacerbating or potentially mitigating the effects of oil shocks is also explored.
    The conclusions reached are that volatile oil prices affect not only macroeconomic stability but also political stability and government decisions. Additionally, it is concluded that a better coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is needed to avoid exacerbating the ripples of oil shocks instead of mitigating them.

  • 3.5.2013

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