Electric Vehicle Diffusion and Adoption. An examination of the major factors of influence over time in the US market

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) present an abnormal case of technology diffusion, because EVs have disappeared from the market twice before. Present-day EV sales constitute the third ‘phase’ of EV adoption over the last two centuries. In the first two phases, gasoline cars out-competed EVs because of lower costs, better range, superior infrastructure, and lack of social vigor for EVs. Despite this weak start, EV sales are rising once again. This paper investigates the most influential factors in the dynamic market for electric vehicles to determine why they have returned to the market again and whether the current market is better suited for EV market diffusion. Analysis of the markets in the past phases and current phase of EV adoption has shown that that costs (upfront, fuel and long-term), range, infrastructure, social attitudes and related policies have been the factors most influential to EV adoption and diffusion. Given the predominant factors’ current trends, the EV market is much better conditioned to adopt EV technology today than in past phases, and if trends continue as projected, EV technology may become mainstream within the next two decades.