Conceptual framework based on population and electricity system exposure to heat-related hazards during heat waves

Abstract

Heat waves are a growing phenomenon, both in intensity and frequency, and are directly linked to Climate Change and this threat is confirmed by both scientific models and real life occurrences. Due to the link between human mortality and high temperatures on one hand and the growing urbanisation on the other hand, urban population is more vulnerable to heat-related hazards, i.e. heat and air pollution. Heat waves do not only take a toll on human lives, they are also causing malfunction of various systems, such as electricity supply and consumption. Using the system dynamic modelling approach, this study builds a conceptual framework based on the situation of Grenoble (France) to assess how urban population and electricity system exposure to heat-related hazards are connected. These two subsystems (urban population health and electricity system) are analysed separately including contingency plans to reduce air pollution; as there is no contingency plans activated to reduce the primary hazard; heat. The Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) show that both subsystems are reinforcing the heat-related hazards, and determine the variables linking both subsystems: transportation policy, health facilities and population behaviour toward heat exposure.