Vinsamlegast notið þetta auðkenni þegar þið vitnið til verksins eða tengið í það: http://hdl.handle.net/1946/31785
Photovoltaic investments are still a challenge for the banking and finance industry because of specific features which are characteristic for renewables. The peculiarities of such investments are still a barrier for many market players who cannot properly assess the risks associated with this type of investment. The non-dispatchability and the strong differences compared to conventional electricity generation technologies, make photovoltaic an investment option which needs to take into account specific risks for a correct investment evaluation. The correct inclusion of risks is fundamental for measuring the profitability of investment in a Photovoltaic power plant in terms of Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return.The focus of this thesis, is to assess the financial viability of installing a solar PV power station considering the risks embedded in this investment class.
To accomplish this, three major steps were completed. First, to identify and correctly estimate the distribution of the identified risks, both technical and financial. Secondly, a model based on Discounted Cash Flow methodology was set up, including all the assumptions necessary for the model to work properly. When those steps were completed, a Monte Carlo simulation was run to give an understanding of the distribution and the range of profitability based on the risks included in the model. The results indicate that, based on the risks under observation, the range of profitability varies greatly with the most influential risk factors identified. Financing conditions and macroeconomic environment play the greatest role as sources of risk, followed by solar radiation and OPEX. Nevertheless, excluding financing and macroeconomic conditions, the risks analyzed are generally moderately correlated with the profitability, with R coefficients ranging from 0,30 to 0,40.
The Power station is assumed to be located in Sicily. This is the first thesis focusing on the economic analysis of a solar PV station in the region.