The US-Japan-China Triangle: Shifting Power Balances in East Asia and the world

Abstract

The three-way relationship between the United States, Japan and China in East Asia will shape the future of the region and China‘s quest for a rightful portion of power in East Asia and the world. The future regional status of Japan and the US depends on how they engage China – whether they do it unilaterally, bilaterally or multilaterally. The success or failure of those choices can in turn have significant influence on China's rise to eventual global power status. The three countries have been successful to various degrees in their bilateral relations, but significant challenges remain and new ones have emerged on all fronts. Furthermore, each corner of the triangle is facing a number of domestic and security policy challenges that will shape their status in the region going forward. The conclusion is that the triangular relationship and East Asia in general would benefit most if the US, Japan and China moved forward through a combination of bilateral and multilateral approaches including the search for common or compatible interests. For the US and Japan these methods present the best way to influence the paths China chooses and shape what kind of regional and global power it becomes in the future. For China they provide the best method to improve its image and reassure its neighbours in the region and beyond as China‘s leadership is set to play a more prominent and also a more connected role in both the regional and global balances of power.