Getur VUCA mælirinn nýst við áhættumat á móttöku og menntun barna og ungmenna á flótta vegna stríðsins í Úkraínu? : Tilviksrannsókn á ,,Svörtum svönum”

Abstract

Á síðustu misserum hafa samfélög verið að takast á við áskoranir á ýmsum sviðum og hefur menntakerfið ekki farið varhluta af því. Þessar samfélagslegu áskoranir tengjast meðal annars loftslagsbreytingum, fjármálakreppum, pólitískum óstöðugleika, tæknibreytingum og stríðsátökum. VUCA aðferðafræðin kom fram á sjónarsviðið á tíunda áratugnum til að bregðast við síbreytilegum heimi. VUCA er skammstöfun sem samanstendur af hugtökunum óstöðugleiki (e. Volatility), óvissa (e. Uncertainty), flækjustig (e. Complexity) og margræðni (e. Ambiguity). Þessar síbreytilegu aðstæður í nútímasamfélögum hafa kallað á nýjar aðferðir við að skilgreina, meta og bregðast við áhættu í verkefnum. Í þessari tilviksrannsókn var skipulögð vinnustofa þar sem VUCA mæli, sem þróaður hefur verið af fræðimönnum í Háskólanum í Reykjavík, var beitt við áhættumat á raunverulegu verkefni sem snýr að móttöku barna og ungmenna á flótta frá Úkraínu í íslenskt skólakerfi. Mælirinn er stöðluð aðferð til að bera kennsl á og meta áhættu. Markmið rannsóknarinnar var að meta hvort mælirinn nýtist til að skilgreina sjaldgæfa áhættuatburði, eða svo kallaða ,,Svarta svani“, í verkefninu. Niðurstöður rannsóknarinnar leiddu í ljós að VUCA mælirinn reyndist gott mælitæki og ágætis viðbót við hefðbundið áhættumat. Skilgreindir voru níu áhættuviðburðir sem verkefnisstjóri getur stuðst við til að bæta áætlanagerð, ákvarðanatöku og forgangsröðun aðgerða til að auka líkur á því að markmið verkefnisins náist. Niðurstöður rannsóknarinnar voru í ágætu samræmi við fyrri rannsóknir á þessu sviði.ABSTRACTIn recent years, societies have been addressing challenges in various areas and the education system has not been spared. These societal challenges include climate change, financial crises, political instability, technological change, and war. The VUCA methodology came into being in the nineties in response to an ever-changing world. VUCA is an acronym consisting of the terms volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. These ever-changing conditions in modern societies have called for new ways of identifying, assessing and responding to project risks. In this case study, a workshop was organized where the VUCA meter, which has been developed by researchers at Reykjavík University, was applied to the risk assessment of an actual project related to the reception of children and young people fleeing Ukraine to the Icelandic school system. The meter is a normative method for identifying and assessing risk. The aim of the study was to assess whether the meter is useful for defining rare risk events, or so-called "Black Swans", in the project. The results of the study showed that the VUCA meter proved to be a good measuring instrument and a good addition to traditional risk assessment. Risk events were defined that the project manager can use to improve planning, decision-making and prioritization of actions to increase the likelihood that the project's goals will be achieved. The results of the study were in line with previous research in this field.

In recent years, societies have been addressing challenges in various areas and the education system has not been spared. These societal challenges include climate change, financial crises, political instability, technological change, and war.The VUCA methodology came into being in the nineties in response to an ever-changing world. VUCA is an acronym consisting of the terms volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. These ever-changing conditions in modern societies have called for new ways of identifying, assessing and responding to project risks.In this case study, a workshop was organized where the VUCA meter, which has been developed by researchers at Reykjavík University, was applied to the risk assessment of an actual project related to the reception of children and young people fleeing Ukraine to the Icelandic school system. The meter is a normative method for identifying andassessing risk. The aim of the study was to assess whether the meter is useful for defining rare risk events, or so-called "Black Swans", in the project. The results of the study showed that the VUCA meter proved to be a good measuring instrument and a good addition to traditional risk assessment. Risk events were defined that the project manager can use toimprove planning, decision-making and prioritization of actions to increase the likelihood that the project's goals will be achieved. The results of the study were in line with previous research in this field.