Markaskorun í Efstudeild karla : tölfræðileg greining á markamynstri í Besta deild karla tímabilið 2024

Abstract

This study investigates goal-scoring patterns in the Icelandic top-tier men's football league (Besta deild karla) during the 2024 season. A total of 559 goals (excluding own goals) were analyzed using data from Opta and visualized through tools including MatchTracker, Excel, Jamovi, and Python. The analysis focused on shot location, match timing, pitch surface, match venue, attacking sequence characteristics, and the impact of the first goal. A novel data-driven model the Gold Zone was developed to identify the spatial area from which 80% of goals were scored.Results revealed that 86% of all goals were scored inside the penalty area, with a heavy concentration in three central zones. Most goals occurred in the final 15 minutes of matches, indicating strong temporal trends. No significant difference in goal frequency was found between artificial turf and natural grass, while home teams scored significantly more goals than away teams. Teams that scored the first goal won in 63.3% of matches, highlighting a clear tactical advantage.These findings offer practical insights for coaches and analysts by emphasizing high-probability shot zones and temporal scoring patterns. The study demonstrates the value of spatial models in performance analysis and sets the foundation for further research using full-shot datasets and advanced metrics such as xG and xT.